Will red merge with Saffron?

C L Rajam

Hyderabad: As India marks the passage of March 31, 2026—the deadline set by Union Home Minister Amit Shah for eradicating Naxalism—the nation's long-standing battle against left-wing extremism appears on the cusp of victory. Shah, in multiple addresses last two years, reiterated the Modi government's resolve to dismantle the Maoist stronghold, particularly in the Dandakaranya region spanning Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, united Andhra Pradesh, and Odisha.

This forested expanse, once synonymous with the "Red Corridor" stretching from Nepal to southern India, has been a hotbed of insurgency since the 1960s. Recent data from the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) and security operations indicate a dramatic decline in Maoist influence, with surrenders and eliminations accelerating in the past year. Shah's assurances, echoed in Parliament and public events, position this as a historic achievement, potentially allowing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to proclaim a Naxal-free India soon.

The Maoist movement, rooted in the 1967 Naxalbari uprising, evolved into a protracted guerrilla war under the Communist Party of India (Maoist), formed in 2004. At its peak, it controlled vast swathes of the Red Corridor, affecting over 200 districts across 10 states by the early 2010s. The insurgents, drawing support from tribal communities aggrieved by land displacement, exploitation, and lack of development, waged a "people's war" against the state. Casualties were staggering: between 2000 and 2024, over 15,000 lives were lost, including civilians, security personnel, and Maoists. The corridor's strategic importance lay in its mineral-rich terrains, where Maoists levied "taxes" on mining operations and disrupted infrastructure projects.

However, under the Modi administration since 2014, a multi-pronged strategy has eroded this grip. The number of LWE-affected districts plummeted from 126 in 2014 to just 7-11 by February 2026, per MHA reviews. Violence incidents dropped by 90%, with civilian and security force deaths reduced similarly. Key to this has been intensified operations like Operation Kagar in Chhattisgarh's Bastar division, which penetrated the impenetrable Abujmarh forests—a 4,000 sq km Maoist sanctuary untouched since colonial times. 

By late 2025, security forces, including the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (CoBRA), established forward bases, demolishing Maoist camps and enabling development outreach. 

Recent months have seen unprecedented setbacks for the Maoists. In 2025 alone, 364 insurgents were neutralized, including 12 top leaders, while 2,337 surrendered—the highest annual figure, comprising 40% of total surrenders since 2019 (5,880). By early 2026, an additional 22 were eliminated. High-profile cases include the November 2025 encounter killing of Madvi Hidma, a notorious Bastar commander carrying a Rs. 40 lakh bounty, in Andhra Pradesh-Chhattisgarh border areas. In February 2026, CPI (Maoist) General Secretary Thippiri Tirupati alias Devuji, underground for 40 years, surrendered in Telangana alongside strategist Malla Raji Reddy and 16 cadres. This decimated the party's Politburo and Central Committee, leaving remnants like Misir Besra in Jharkhand under siege. Mass surrenders, such as 208 cadres with 153 weapons in Dandakaranya's North Bastar in October 2025, declared the area "free from red terror."

These gains stem from a "ruthless strategy" blending kinetic action with incentives. Enhanced surrender policies offer cash rewards—up to Rs 1 crore for top leaders—and rehabilitation, including jobs and housing. Shah's deadline, first announced in February 2025, galvanized forces, with operations like Black Forest targeting hideouts in Indravati National Park. Development initiatives, such as roads, schools, and mobile networks in remote areas, have alienated Maoists from their tribal base, addressing root causes like poverty and exploitation.

Politically, this positions the BJP to contrast its decisiveness with the Congress era's perceived inaction. During Congress-led United Progressive Alliance rule (2004-2014), Naxalism was dubbed India's "biggest internal security threat" by then-PM Manmohan Singh, yet expanded unchecked. Shah may invoke historical parallels in any announcement: likening Modi's liberation of Dandakaranya to Mahatma Gandhi's independence struggle or Sardar Patel's integration of Hyderabad via Operation Polo in 1948. The NDA could tout this as its crowning internal security triumph, bolstering its narrative ahead of future elections.

An intriguing twist lies in the post-surrender landscape. Maoist leaders, known for mobilizing tribals and oppressed classes, bring organizational prowess to mainstream politics. Figures like Mallojula Venugopal Rao (alias Sonu), who surrendered in October 2025 with 60 comrades, have expressed interest in electoral participation. However, launching independent parties seems improbable due to financial disparities with established outfits.

Congress might eye them for bolstering its tribal outreach, but indications point toward BJP alliances. Lured by hefty rewards and the party's dominance at the center and in majority of states, surrendered cadres could integrate into BJP or NDA folds, providing grassroots strength in former red zones.

This influx could reshape regional politics, especially in Jharkhand and Odisha, where Maoists once influenced votes through intimidation. Still challenges remain: ensuring genuine rehabilitation to prevent recidivism, and addressing criticisms that operations overlook human rights, with allegations of fake encounters and tribal displacement for mining interests. The government has designated 31 "Legacy Thrust Districts" for sustained support, focusing on governance to fill the vacuum.

As March 2026 unfolds, Shah's vision nears fruition. The Red Corridor's fadeout not only secures India's heartland but signals a paradigm shift—from armed rebellion to democratic integration. Whether this heralds lasting peace or merely a tactical retreat depends on inclusive development. For now, it's a monumental stride, potentially announced with fanfare, etching Modi's legacy alongside India's freedom fighters.

Reasons for the Maoists downfall

The iron resolve with which both the Centre and state governments acted helped to put an end to the Maoists movement.  Use of the state -of-the-art technology, sophisticated weapons and equipment including night vision cameras, tapping the Maoists and their supporters’ phones and decoy operations also helped a lot. Since youth stopped getting attracted to the Maoist movement led to no new recruitment of the cadres. Another reason is Maoists switched over from their Guerrilla war fare to almost conventional war fare led their fall. Since the Maoist movement is not going towards any possible result, the leaders and cadre became uninterested. A majority of the top leadership became aged and faced lot of health issues.