Aluminium hits 4-year high amid global supply concerns, china risks

Geopolitical uncertainty, tightening raw material availability and export disruptions continue driving industrial metal market momentum globally

Commodity Desk

MUMBAI

Global aluminium prices have surged to a four-year high amid tightening supply conditions, geopolitical tensions and fears of production curbs in China, with analysts expecting prices to remain firm in the near future.

 On the London Metal Exchange, aluminium prices climbed close to $3,700 per tonne during Tuesday’s session, the highest level since March 2022. At 1538 IST on Wednesday, the three-month aluminium contract was trading 0.63% higher at $3,672.50 per tonne. 

  On the MCX, aluminium for June delivery traded 0.1% higher at ₹387 per kilogram. Analysts said the ongoing US-Iran conflict has disrupted global supply chains and tightened export availability across several markets outside China. The conflict has impacted shipping routes and raised concerns over raw material availability, keeping market sentiment bullish.

 According to ING Economics, supply disruptions in the Middle East continue to remain the biggest driver for aluminium prices. 

  Any further escalation in the conflict could lead to additional supply losses and tighter export flows for consumers outside China. China, the world’s largest aluminium producer, had earlier increased output to offset global shortages and take advantage of strong margins.

  Daily aluminium production in the country touched a record 129,000 tonnes in April, while shipments rose over 25% year-on-year in 2025. Adding to supply concerns, Guinea — China’s largest supplier of bauxite, a key raw material used in aluminium production — has reportedly indicated possible export restrictions from June.

   Commerzbank Research also pointed to growing concerns over Chinese production cuts, especially as some smelters in Guangxi province have already reduced output due to rising inventories.

(With inputs from Abhijit Doshi, Informist)