Peace dividend remains world’s missing asset

HISTORY NEVER SLEEPS| From Gaza to Hormuz, old conflicts still exact a heavy toll on lives, trade and mkts

Too many cooks spoil the broth, says the old proverb.  The Middle East offers a modern variation. Too many players, too many agendas and too many unfinished histories have turned the region into a tangled plate of geopolitical spaghetti.  

Every power claims to hold a strand of the solution; each pull only tightens the knot.  That knot has shaped global politics, energy markets and human destiny for nearly eight decades. Wars have been fought, dictators have risen and fallen, peace accords have been signed and oil has flowed through deserts and seas. Yet peace remains elusive because the region's deepest questions have never been answered. Every time tensions flare in the Middle East, oil traders react, investors hesitate and governments recalculate.  Few regions exert such influence over global markets. Yet the roots of that influence lie in a history that remains unfinished.

The story stretches back to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War.  Borders were drawn with little regard for ethnic, tribal or religious realities.  The creation of Israel in 1948 transformed the Palestinian question into one of the defining geopolitical issues of the modern age.  Since then, the region has endured wars, revolutions and uprisings, culminating in today's confrontations involving Israel, Iran, Gaza, Lebanon and the wider Gulf. The conflict is often portrayed as religious. In reality, its foundations are political, territorial and historical. Palestinians seek statehood.  

Israel seeks security. Iran seeks influence. Arab governments seek stability. Ordinary citizens seek jobs, opportunity, accountable governance and freedom. Most of these aspirations remain unfulfilled. The humanitarian cost has been immense. The Gaza war has taken tens of thousands of lives and displaced entire communities. Earlier, the Arab Spring exposed deep frustrations over corruption, unemployment and political exclusion. Governments changed, but many grievances survived.

Viewed through the economic lens, the Middle East conflict may be among the world's most expensive recurring political failures. The Strait of Hormuz, barely 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, carries roughly one-fifth of global oil trade. Every threat to its security raises shipping costs, fuels inflation and unsettles markets from New York to Mumbai. 

For India, the consequences are immediate. Higher crude prices ripple through transport, agriculture, manufacturing, aviation and household budgets. Yet the Gulf is no longer merely India's energy supplier. Sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and other Gulf states have invested billions of dollars in Indian infrastructure, technology and renewable energy.  Beyond oil lies an even larger human bridge. 

Millions of workers from India and across Asia help power Gulf economies. Their remittances sustain families and strengthen national economies. Every regional crisis therefore threatens not only energy flows and investment projects but also livelihoods.

Do all mediators genuinely seek peace? Some undoubtedly do. Others pursue influence, arms sales or strategic advantage. The language is peace. The incentives are often more complicated. 

The Middle East does not suffer from a shortage of diplomacy. It suffers from a shortage of political endgames.  Until the questions of Palestinian statehood, Israeli security, accountable governance, economic opportunity and regional coexistence are addressed honestly, peace will remain a promise rather than a reality. The region possesses vast oil wealth. Yet oil cannot purchase trust. It cannot buy reconciliation. And it cannot erase history. 

For India, the Middle East is no longer merely an energy partner. Every step towards peace strengthens both regions. Every return to conflict imposes a hidden tax on billions. Markets understand what politics often forgets: peace is the world's most valuable dividend and its most neglected asset.