There clearly is a huge trust deficit between BJP and its major alliance partners, Shiv Sena and NCP, which may lead to bipolar politics

The trends in Maharashtra politics have been ever-changing and very unpredictable since the past few years, and this is what attracts the nation’s attention to this state’s politics. Being the highest contributor to the national collection of Goods and Services Tax (GST), Maharashtra is clearly the most industrialised and urbanised amongst all the large states in India. After the recently concluded municipal polls in the 29 cities of the state, now the most attention-worthy question is: who will control cities like Mumbai, Pune, Thane and Nagpur? The results indicate the political trend may again change in Maharashtra, and questions are being asked about whether the state is now slowly moving from politics of alliances to bipolar politics with only two political parties, as opposed to the six or seven which were the norm earlier, being in the fray.

The Bharatiya Janata Party adopted a very clever strategy in the recent municipal polls by getting into seat-sharing deals with their alliance partners where winning a majority was crucial for them but fighting separately where the polls seemed a cakewalk for the BJP! For instance, in Mumbai the BJP was not too confident about how things would unfold, in view of the Thackeray cousins uniting and getting into a seat-sharing agreement, so they decided to have a seat-sharing agreement with Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. However, in cities like Pune, Kolhapur, and Nagpur, the party seemed confident of a solo performance and, thus, clearly told its alliance partners, Shiv Sena and NCP, that it will fight solo. It was quite unprecedented. While the BJP fought as one unit in alliance with Eknath Shinde in Mumbai, just 160 km away from the state capital, in cities like Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad, it was aggressive against its alliance partners Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde. The results have given the BJP a clear idea of which way the political winds are blowing and what they must do in the upcoming district council or Zilla Parishad polls, as well as how they should prepare for the 2029 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls in Maharashtra.

The Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, did well in Shinde’s bastion, the Thane Municipal Corporation, but the BJP managed to dominate the other municipal bodies in the Thane district, such as Kalyan-Dombivli, Ulhasnagar, and Ambarnath. This has given a clear signal to Shinde that the BJP would gradually capture the political space as a solo player in his bastion of Thane district and marginalise him ahead of the 2029 polls. What has put Shinde on an alert is the fact that the BJP’s state president, Ravindra Chavan, who himself has his home base in Dombivli, got very aggressive ahead of the polls and poached many of Shinde’s trusted activists and grassroots workers just weeks before the polling day. This has clearly upset Shinde majorly, and he remained absent for the state cabinet meeting on Tuesday despite being in Thane attending birth anniversary celebrations of his political mentor, Anand Dighe.

Shinde is very concerned about the poaching attempts of the BJP in the BMC, where he fought 90 seats in alliance with the saffron party but could win only 29 seats. Shinde has been guarding his corporators and has kept them at a five-star city hotel to avoid them getting in touch with the BJP.

The other partner in the Mahayuti government, NCP leader Ajit Pawar, was seen bitterly targeting the BJP in his poll campaign in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC) and Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal (PCMC) elections. Since the BJP decided to fight alone in Pune and the PCMC, Ajit Pawar got a clear signal about the long-term plans of the saffron party to marginalise him in his political bastion. The way the BJP has sidelined Ajit Pawar on his home turf of the PMC and the PCMC has annoyed Ajit Pawar immensely, but currently, he has no option other than continuing in the Mahayuti government.

All this points towards the huge trust deficit that exists between the BJP and its two major alliance partners. Many political observers feel that this might now lead towards some kind of polarisation within the six or seven political outfits in Maharashtra. The Thackeray cousins decided to join forces in the BMC polls, so the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena are not two but a single political outfit now. A similar situation exists between Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Sharad Pawar’s NCP. They fought the municipal polls together and will fight the district council polls too as a single force. The two factions of Thackeray and the two factions of Pawar have united with the common goal of keeping the BJP at bay.

Now, if the BJP succeeds in keeping Eknath Shinde in their flock, there could be a fight between the BJP-Shiv Sena on the one side and the Thackeray-Pawar combined force on the other side. The Congress party’s overall size in recent polls has shrunk, which means the fights in the upcoming district council polls as well as the 2029 Lok Sabha and Assembly polls could be bipolar instead of a multi-party political match. 

If the BJP is unable to keep Shinde in its alliance, it is clear that Shinde will have the option of being on the opposition’s side. He will have to design an alliance or a seat-sharing formula with the opposition, which will again make the future fight bipolar, with the BJP on the one side and an alliance of multiple parties on the other side!