US President Trump’s words help, mkts still seek proof

TRUCE ON PAPER | From Tehran to Dalal Street, screens stay cautious

Palazhi Ashok Kumar mumbai

Markets often climb a staircase of hope only to descend by a lift of doubt. Tuesday offered a timely reminder. Investors who had cheered signs of peace in the Middle East suddenly found themselves asking a more difficult question: can the peace last?

Indian benchmark indices retreated sharply as a cocktail of global concerns overshadowed recent optimism. The Sensex plunged 893 points to close at 76,200.68, while the Nifty shed 278 points to end at 23,824.10. The decline reflected more than routine profit-booking. It revealed growing unease about the durability of a fragile geopolitical calm, the future of global technology employment and the security of the world’s energy lifelines.

Markets are no longer reacting to headlines alone. They are searching for evidence. Until peace proves durable, energy routes prove secure and technology disruptions become better understood, caution may continue to command a premium.

At the centre of the debate stood President Trump. The US granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following fresh talks in Switzerland, while Trump declared he would “do what I have to do” should Tehran fail to honour the emerging agreement. The remarks were intended to reassure markets. Instead, they served as a reminder that the ceasefire remains conditional and that the region’s future is still being negotiated rather than guaranteed.

Iran’s refusal to confirm broader nuclear understandings reinforced that caution. Investors who only days ago celebrated prospects of lasting peace began reassessing the risks.

Fresh concerns over Gulf energy infrastructure added another layer of uncertainty. Reports surrounding LNG facilities in Qatar and continuing questions over the security of strategic shipping routes highlighted how vulnerable global energy supplies remain.

Brent crude stayed below $80 a barrel, yet traders recognised that one incident in the Gulf could quickly change the equation.

The technology sector provided little comfort. Indian IT shares came under heavy pressure amid a wider global technology sell-off and persistent concerns that artificial intelligence could accelerate disruption across traditional outsourcing and software services. Infosys and Tata Consultancy Services were among the day's major losers, reflecting investor anxiety about future earnings models in an AI-driven world.

For India, the outlook remains balanced between promise and caution. Lower oil prices, a stable rupee and hopes of sustained peace are supportive factors. Yet investors must also contend with monsoon uncertainties, foreign fund outflows, elevated US bond yields and unresolved trade negotiations between Washington and New Delhi.

The risk-off mood spread across global markets. South Korea’s Kospi, Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed lower, while European bourses traded in negative territory.