Sharad Pawar’s NCP faces a dilemma over future alliance

One of the major factors is development funds, which many opposition leaders say are becoming increasingly difficult for them to obtain

The monsoon session of the state assembly, which is underway right now, will end in a few days’ time, and Maharashtra, yet again, is in for some surprises in the political sphere! Just weeks after six members of parliament of Uddhav Thackeray’s party switched over to the ruling Mahayuti alliance, this time there is speculation about which way Sharad Pawar’s MPs and MLAs may be headed.

The buzz within Sharad Pawar’s NCP is that the party high command is on the verge of taking some major decisions regarding the future course of the party. There has been a lot of talk about the possibility of a merger between the two factions of the NCP. Many insiders have been saying, with a fair degree of confidence, that the two factions of NCP, one led by uncle Sharad Pawar and the other by nephew Ajit Pawar, were about to merge and join the BJP-led NDA alliance in New Delhi as well as in Maharashtra. However, Ajit Pawar’s sudden death changed all that, and the Sunetra Pawar-led NCP did not show any interest in the merger talks thereafter. Now, there is fresh talk about ensuring the political future of Sharad Pawar’s MLAs and MPs before the next poll season of 2029. 

Most of the NCP leaders, familiar with the developments, say that there is a huge dilemma within the NCP about what to do, as discussions are believed to be on with the Congress party as well as with the BJP at the same time!

The interesting part is that the Congress high command has not been showing too much of an interest in the merger talks with Sharad Pawar’s party. The Congress leadership has asked its Maharashtra team to give an assessment of what the party will gain if it takes Sharad Pawar’s party along. Sharad Pawar’s NCP has eight members in the Lok Sabha and 10 members in the Maharashtra assembly. The state leadership of Congress feels that it cannot trust the NCP (SP), as some of the NCP (SP) Lok Sabha members seem to be in contact with the BJP leadership within Maharashtra.

Sharad Pawar’s politics has remained highly unpredictable in the past four decades. When the Shiv Sena-BJP government came to power in Maharashtra for the first time in 1995, Sharad Pawar indirectly played a key role in making Manohar Joshi the chief minister, as he had very good relations with Joshi. In 2014, when for the first time a BJP government was about to be formed in Maharashtra and Shiv Sena was not part of that government, it was Sharad Pawar who extended ‘outside support’ to them in the state, and many say that in 2022, when Ajit Pawar crossed over to the BJP-led NDA, it happened with the consent of uncle Sharad Pawar. This shows that Sharad Pawar is highly unpredictable and can go in any direction in the coming months.

In any case, Sharad Pawar’s MLAs and MPs face a very uncertain future. Some of them are already in talks with the state BJP leadership about improving their prospects in their respective constituencies. It is believed that in the Sangli district, NCP (SP) MLA Rohit Patil is in close talks with Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis about developing the Maharashtra Industrial Development Corporation zone in his constituency.

In the Pune district, NCP (SP) MP Amol Kolhe, who had won with a convincing lead in the 2024 polls, was recently seen praising CM Fadnavis publicly. Many in the NCP say that leaders are privately asking why they should stay with the opposition when Sharad Pawar could not stop his own nephew from crossing over to the BJP-led NDA! According to many NCP (SP) insiders, these are indications that the chances of Sharad Pawar’s NCP going with the NDA are high. Whether all the eight MPs and 10 MLAs agree to it remains to be seen.

One of the major factors behind these defections is development funds. Many leaders of the Congress party, and even NCP (SP), have openly claimed that it is becoming increasingly difficult for them to obtain development funds from the state government’s finance ministry. When Ajit Pawar was the finance minister, NCP(SP) MLAs and MPs had access to him and could obtain their development project funds. The six MPs of Uddhav Thackeray’s party who crossed over recently to the Shiv Sena said the same things about fund distribution. All things indicate that the NCP (SP) is set to take some major decisions within five-seven days before the monsoon session gets over. 

Yes, Maharashtra’s ever-changing politics is set to see another twist.

ROHIT CHANDAVARKAR