Left or right: Which way will the Opp go in Maharashtra?

Uddhav believes he has to portray himself as a Hindutva crusader and that the Ayodhya issue is the best opportunity to have come his way

The student agitation at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi has taken centre stage not just in the Indian media but also in the international media. In about 23 districts of Maharashtra, the effects of the student agitation launched by the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP) in New Delhi were seen on the ground as local activists gathered to carry out protests and sit on a day’s strike. Nationally, the opposition parties see some hope in this as, after a long time, students seem to have come out on the streets for a peaceful protest, suggesting that there is an element of anger among the young citizens of India over issues plaguing the education sector. At the same time, Shiv Sena (UBT) was seen launching an agitation in various parts of Maharashtra over the theft that took place inside Ayodhya’s Ram Mandir. The student agitation seems to be dominated by the left-leaning political forces, while the agitation over the theft at Ram Mandir is clearly part of Uddhav Thackeray’s Hindutva or right-leaning agenda. This raises a pertinent question regarding which path the Maharashtra opposition will take in the coming weeks. Will it go towards the left or move towards Hindutva?

It is very clear that one of the major problems facing the opposition parties and their alliance in Maharashtra is the lack of unity and clarity over who is in charge. In the Lok Sabha polls of 2024, the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP (SP) alliance did very well, winning 31 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats. However, just over six months later in the state assembly polls, the same Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance fared rather poorly because of several factors. 

The two main factors were, first, the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti introduced Direct Benefit Transfer schemes, such as Ladki Bahin Yojana, which influenced women voters in the state; and second, the Mahayuti went for a Hindutva-based polarisation strategy in which it was portrayed that Uddhav Thackeray got political support from the minority community in large numbers in the previous Lok Sabha polls and that he had, allegedly, deviated from the path of Hindutva, which was the “bonding glue” for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra since 1988. Seemingly, the BJP-led Mahayuti was able to convince the majority of voters on both these factors and got a thumping majority in the state assembly.

Now, Uddhav Thackery seems to be convinced that he has to portray the image of being a Hindutva crusader and feels that the issue of “chanda chori” at Ayodhya is the best opportunity that has come his way. After a seemingly long time, Uddhav took to roads in Mumbai as well as Nagpur, holding agitations outside temples over the Ram Mandir theft. It is clear that Uddhav wants to touch an emotional chord with the voters over the Hindutva agenda and now wants to project that the BJP has allowed things to go wrong in Ayodhya, which means that it has deviated from its Hindutva agenda! Whether it will work with the voters or not is one thing, the bigger question is whether this line of campaigning will be acceptable to Udhhav’s political partner, the Congress party.

The Congress in Maharashtra is very vocal and aggressive about its secular ideology and has gone out of the way on several occasions to preserve its Muslim and Dalit community voter base. Will the Congress leadership in Maharashtra and New Delhi be comfortable with their alliance partner Shiv Sena (UBT) returning to its Hindutva agenda?

The other question about which there is a lot of buzz in the state is regarding what the third partner in the opposition MVA alliance, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, is up to. There have been conflicting reports that, in the coming weeks, some NCP (SP) Lok Sabha members might align with either the NDA or with the Congress party. Latest reports suggest that there have been long discussions among the Pawar family members and there are disagreements within the family itself over which way to go. Some say that MLA Rohit Pawar has put his foot down about remaining in the opposition space, while some other members of the family feel that an alignment with the NDA will be beneficial for them. It is not clear about which way the Pawar family will go, but all this has created a bit of confusion in the opposition MVA about the state of affairs within the alliance. 

Some say that the opposition alliance members and leaders are taking a lot of time to make up their minds about which way to head and whom to align with because there are no elections in the near future. As the next election in Maharashtra will only be in 2029, leaders are taking their time to ponder over all factors before deciding the future course of action. Be that as it may, it has created a lot of confusion in the rank-and-file of the opposition parties. 

The activists seem very confused, and many of them, especially in western Maharashtra and Konkan, may eventually decide to cross over to one of the NDA parties, either Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena or the BJP itself. Considering all this, it is the BJP-led NDA that seems to be the beneficiary of the current political situation in Maharashtra!