Continuous Tussle Power struggle in Karnataka

The political landscape in Karnataka is once again dominated by a high-stakes power tussle within the Congress party. At the centre of this drama is the question of leadership, pitting Chief Minister Siddaramaiah against his deputy, DK Shivakumar.

Recent developments have thrust this internal conflict back into the spotlight, with nearly 40 MLAs loyal to Shivakumar gathering at a private hotel in Bengaluru. This huddle, organized by MLA HC Balakrishna, aimed to strategize on pressuring the Congress high command to elevate Shivakumar to the chief minister's post.

This isn't a new story; it traces back to the Congress's sweeping victory in the 2023 Karnataka assembly elections. Following the win, a bitter contest erupted over the chief minister's position, creating early instability in the newly formed government. Senior Congress leader Randeep Surjewala intervened as a troubleshooter to broker peace, but tensions have persisted. 

Reports suggest an informal understanding was reached at the time, proposing a power-sharing arrangement where Siddaramaiah would serve the first half of the five-year term, with Shivakumar taking over after the halfway mark on November 28, 2025. However, that milestone has passed without any transition, leading to renewed friction.

Siddaramaiah has firmly stated his intention to complete the full term, digging in his heels against any change. In contrast, Shivakumar and his allies are ramping up pressure, with the recent MLA meeting serving as a show of strength. Visuals from the hotel gathering depict Shivakumar's supporters deliberating their next moves, underscoring that he now commands significant backing—estimated at around 40 MLAs, a marked increase from the 10-15 he reportedly had earlier. This numerical advantage could potentially destabilize the government if push comes to shove, though both leaders maintain a united front publicly, dismissing talks of factions as media creations.

The Congress high command has urged restraint, emphasizing that the government must function without public discord. Interventions and promises have been made to Shivakumar, but the timeline remains unclear. This balancing act appears to be faltering, as the demands resurface with greater intensity. The situation has evolved into a high-stakes face-off, where internal lobbying intensifies while the party projects outward harmony.

A state Congress spokesperson downplayed the notion of factions, asserting, "There are no camps in Congress. There is only one camp, that is called the Congress camp. No DK camp. No Siddaramaiah camp." He emphasized the party's unity, crediting both leaders for the 2023 victory and noting Shivakumar's hard work as KPCC president. 

Prakash described Shivakumar as a "natural choice" for Chief Minister should a vacancy arise, but stressed that the high command—led by figures like Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi, and Sonia Gandhi—would decide at an appropriate time. He dismissed the hotel huddle as a casual gathering, estimating only 15-18 MLAs were present, and argued that all 138 Congress MLAs support both leaders. On cabinet expansion, he hinted it could follow the upcoming budget session in early March, urging patience as the high command weighs decisions in the state's interest.

A BJP leader criticized the Congress for prioritizing internal fights over governance. She pointed out that the power struggle has been the dominant narrative since the Congress assumed power, fuelled by statements from Congress members themselves. She highlighted instances like social media clashes and mocking remarks from Shivakumar's camp, arguing that this discord has led to administrative lapses, such as delays in welfare schemes. She linked the tussle to broader inefficiencies, noting that MLAs are focused on leadership battles rather than constituencies, and called on the Congress to resolve it for the sake of the state's people.

A journalist however framed the situation as the "latest episode in an episodic drama series" that began in May 2023. He questioned the existence of a power-sharing agreement, noting that no one—from the high command to the leaders—has outright denied it, only evaded questions. He argued that the core issue isn't eligibility or caste but honoring the alleged pact, given both leaders' roles in the victory. 

He dismissed number games among MLAs as irrelevant, emphasizing the high command's final authority in Congress. On cabinet expansion, he linked it directly to the leadership question: "Cabinet expansion will not happen unless a decision is taken on change of power." He warned that prolonged factionalism could be counterproductive, drawing parallels to historical Congress infighting.

As Karnataka approaches its budget session, the power tussle shows no signs of abating. The Congress high command faces pressure to intervene decisively, balancing loyalty, promises, and electoral strategy. For now, the people of Karnataka watch as governance takes a backseat to political maneuvering, with the 2028 elections looming as a potential litmus test for the party's unity. Whether Siddaramaiah holds firm or Shivakumar ascends remains uncertain, but the saga underscores the fragile nature of alliances in Indian politics.