OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand forecast

Asian economies expected to anchor energy consumption recovery as producer alliance output and inventories decline globally

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has lowered its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million bpd projected earlier, citing slower consumption expectations across major economies in its latest monthly oil market report.

  However, the group raised its global oil demand growth estimate for 2027 to 1.5 million bpd from 1.3 million bpd projected previously. 

  Demand from non-OECD nations is expected to remain the key growth driver, led by China, India and other Asian economies, alongside support from Africa, Latin America and West Asia.

  India’s oil demand forecast for 2026 was marginally cut by 20,000 bpd to 5.85 million bpd. For 2027, India’s oil demand is projected to rise further to 6.09 million bpd, according to the report.

  OPEC retained its non-OPEC oil supply growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027 at 600,000 bpd. The cartel said production growth outside the OPEC+ alliance is likely to be driven mainly by Qatar, Brazil, Canada and Argentina. The report also showed a sharp decline in crude output among OPEC and allied producers in April.  

Total production by OPEC+ countries fell 1.74 million bpd on month to 33.19 million bpd, while OPEC’s own output declined 1.73 million bpd to 18.98 million bpd. Saudi Arabia’s oil production dropped 958,000 bpd to 6.77 million bpd during April. Russia’s output fell by 107,000 bpd to 9.06 million bpd, while Iraq’s production declined by 291,000 bpd. 

 —Informist